The Oil Crunch: The world will experience peak oil at 91-92 million barrels per day “by end 2010/early 2011. Global capacity will then remain in the 91-92Mb/d range until 2015 from which time depletion will more than offset capacity growth. . .”
The Joint Operating Environment: “By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.”
Sustainable Energy Security: “A supply crunch appears likely around 2013…given recent price experience, a spike in excess of $200 per barrel is not infeasible.”
Taken together, then, these reports suggest the world will be entering into a period of turmoil due to oil supply issues as early as the beginning of 2011 or as late as 2013. This will be marked by a time of rising oil prices, simply due to demand. By 2015 oil output will be in decline and the world will collectively have to make structural changes, or else face outright economic decline, because less oil will be coming to the market at any price.